Kotak positive on GAIL, ONGC after OPEC production cut decision


According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the demand for crude oil produced by OPEC countries at the world market is now at 31.3 million barrels.

The cartel said that it forecasts oil supplies of non-OPEC countries to sell by as much as 2.16 million barrels a day in 2019, with output driven primarily by the US, Russia, Brazil and the United Kingdom, according to its latest monthly report.

Azerbaijan presented data on its daily oil production in November 2018 to the OPEC Joint Technical Committee as part of the Vienna Agreement, Trend reports citing the Azerbaijani Energy Ministry.

It said in a note that OPEC+ curbing production would have a calming effect over concerns of a supply glut in the global market, but the bank also determined that the oil cut deal would have a limited impact on oil prices.

Since Canada's top oil-producing province announced mandatory output curbs on December 2, the spot price of Western Canada Select crude has surged more than 70 percent.

Oil edged higher after a USA industry report signaled a bigger-than-expected draw in crude inventories last week.

OPEC is to discuss the joint oil output cut with Non-OPEC producers, including Russian Federation on Friday. "Today's decision is a very important step for the oil producers, the oil market and the future of the oil industry", he said.

Monday's price dip tells us two things, says PVM Oil Associates in London: "Either the 1.2 million bpd reduction in the production of the OPEC+ group is not deemed sufficient by the market, or there are other bearish factors at work".

Based on International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast, Kotak estimates that incremental non-OPEC supply supported by rising production from the U.S. in CY2019 will now barely exceed incremental oil demand of 1.4 million barrels per day assuming OPEC and its allies manage supplies through the year. The price of oil has fallen 25 percent recently because major producers and the USA are producing oil at high rates. This was offset by increases of 377,000 bpd from top exporter Saudi Arabia and an extra 71,000 bpd from the United Arab Emirates.

OPEC will cut 800,000 barrels per day for six months starting January. President Trump made his position clear on Wednesday when he tweeted that he hopes OPEC keeps oil production at current levels.

Crude futures have lost around a third of their value since early October amid the financial market slump and an emerging oil supply overhang.