Price of oil could reach $100/barrel by late 2018 or early 2019


The coalition of roughly two dozen exporters has been limiting its output since January 2017 in order to end a punishing oil price downturn that bankrupted hundreds of American oil companies and heaped financial pressure on crude-producing nations. On Tuesday, Brent oil hit $82 per barrel for the first time since 2014. While some, such as Citi's Ed Morse, suggests that an SPR sale could "knock a couple of bucks off the oil price", others, such as Hess Corp's Greg Hill are skeptical: "It won't drop oil from $80 to $65, and any effect would be short-term".

"Trump blames Opec for what he has created and caused: the rise of the price of oil and disturbance in the market".

US officials, including President Donald Trump, are trying to reassure consumers and investors that enough supply will remain in the oil market and have pushed OPEC to raise output.

Oil prices rose Tuesday on global supply concerns following US sanctions on Iran's oil exports, with benchmark Brent surging to a four-year high, then retraced gains to settle just slightly higher after US President Donald Trump called again on Opec to boost crude output. The news was bearish for oil, but some analysts expressed skepticism about the efficiency of the mechanism on the grounds that the US could simply expand the scope of the sanctions to include barter deals between the European Union and Iran. 'The US seeks to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero even for a month, but that dream would not come to reality, ' Bijan Zangeneh said on Monday.

That threw a bit of cold water on bullish forecasts issued this week by trading giants Mercuria Energy Group Ltd and Trafigura Group, who said that supply losses could send oil back above $100 a barrel. The impending sanctions by the United States on Iran, the third-largest producer among OPEC, which will go into effect November 4, the rising domestic petrol and diesel prices, which touched new record highs in the backdrop of continued weakness in the rupee against the U.S. dollar, and the high crude oil prices that tend to widen the current account deficit for India, which meets more than 80 per cent of its oil requirement through imports, contribute to high oil prices. He said the cartel is focused on "more important" aspects of the oil market, like assuring the world is adequately supplied with crude.

Analysts expect sanctions to remove between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day out of the globe's oil market.

"We are not going to put up with it, these frightful prices, much longer".

Richard Robinson, manager of the Ashburton Global Energy Fund, said higher prices are nearly certainly on the cards.

Release of USA crude data will be watched closely by oil investors going forward.

Trump, not the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), is behind the recent rise in prices, Zanganeh said.